Granthara03.03.01Adjusted vs unadjusted prices

03.03.01 · Adjusted vs unadjusted prices

PreviouslyHow steep a line looks is the data divided by the shape of the window.

Two histories, both true.

Ask two people what a share cost five years ago and they can both be right while giving different numbers. Not because one is careless. Because two histories of the same company exist, both published, both correct, and almost nobody says which one they are reading.

A chart can be wrong about the past without a single number in it being false.

Updated

₹300
What a ₹1,500 high becomes after a ₹10 to ₹2 split
Part 03 · Data Literacy: Trusting What You See
  1. 03.03.01 Adjusted vs unadjusted prices
  2. 03.03.02 Split, bonus, and dividend adjustment errors
  3. 03.03.03 Continuous vs contract data (futures)
  4. 03.03.04 Survivorship bias in historical screens
  5. 03.03.05 Look-ahead bias: the mistake you cannot see
  6. 03.03.06 Where to source clean data, and how to verify it
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Why a second history has to exist

01.07.05 established the problem: after a bonus, a split or a rights issue, the prices either side of the ex-date are in different units. Bharat Foods at ₹500 becomes ₹250 the morning after a one-for-one bonus, and nobody has lost anything — there are simply twice as many shares.

A chart drawn from the traded prices shows that as a fall of half. Every return, average and level crossing the date is then wrong, not because the data is false but because it is being read as though the units never changed.

So data providers keep a second version. An adjusted history divides every price before the ex-date by the same factor — 2 for a one-for-one bonus or a ₹10 to ₹5 split, 1.5 for a one-for-two bonus — so the whole series is expressed in today's units and the step disappears.

Both series are now published. The raw one says what changed hands. The adjusted one says what a holder earned. Neither is the truth on its own.

See it

The same company, twice

An illustrative share through a one-for-one bonus. Switch histories and watch the return change sign.

Nothing about the company differs between these two pictures. Only the units the earlier half is expressed in.

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Which one your question needs

Adjusted, for anything about return. What did a holder make over five years; how did this company do against an index; what was the drawdown. These are questions about a holding, and a holding passed through the corporate action.

Raw, for anything about a price that was actually paid. What did it cost on the day you bought; what level did a headline quote; where was the high before the split. These are questions about transactions, and transactions happened in the units of their day.

The rule follows the chapter before it: the question picks the setting. What is new here is that getting it wrong produces no error message and no odd-looking chart. Both series are smooth, plausible and internally consistent.

One illustrative high, read two ways
The high before a ₹10 to ₹2 split
₹1,500 — the price that traded
The same high on an adjusted chart
₹300 — the same event, in today's units
The split factor
5
Shares held, before and after
1 becomes 5; the holding is unchanged
Which number is wrong
neither
5×the factor between two true answers
0of the reader's money that moved
Try it

A friend says a share "used to be ₹1,500 and is now ₹340". Your chart shows it at ₹300 five years ago and ₹340 today. Who is wrong?

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The parts of this nobody mentions

Volume adjusts too, in the opposite direction. If prices before the ex-date are divided by 5, the share counts are multiplied by 5, so a historical volume figure is not the number of shares that traded that day either.

Dividends are optional. A bonus or split must be adjusted for or the series is broken. A dividend need not be: 01.07.05 put the factor for Bharat Foods' hypothetical ₹4 dividend at about 1.008. Some providers apply it and some do not, and this is where two respectable sources disagree most often about the same company.

A buyback has no factor at all. Shares are extinguished and the price is not restated, so nothing in the history moves.

Adjusted prices are rewritten every time there is a new action. The ₹300 on your chart today becomes ₹150 after the next one-for-one bonus. An adjusted history is not a fixed record; it is a view recalculated from the present backwards.

Try it

Adjusted or raw — which series answers the question?

What return did someone holding for ten years receive?
What price did I pay in 2019?
How did this company do against the index since 2020?
What was the highest price this share has ever traded at?
How large was the fall in the crash of a given year?
Did the price gap below the level in a news report from that week?

The sentence to put on every chart

Which series is this, and does it adjust for dividends? Those are two separate questions, and a provider that cannot answer both is not a source you can reconcile against anything. Write the answer into your template (03.04.01), because it is the one setting that silently changes every other number on the page.

That is adjustment done correctly. The next lesson is about the three ways it is done incorrectly — and how each one looks, because each leaves a mark you can learn to spot.

Remember

A bonus or split leaves two lawful histories of one company — the raw prices that traded and an adjusted series restated into today's units — and the question decides which you need, because neither is wrong and neither announces itself.

Next
03.03.02 — Split, bonus, and dividend adjustment errors

Next: the same adjustment, done wrongly in three different ways.