Granthara07.01.02Prior trend requirement

Illustrative daily closes, not a real share's history. Nothing here states what followed either path, and no pattern name on this page is a signal.

07.01.02 · Prior trend requirement

PreviouslyA pattern is a compression: the few facts that survive standing back from many sessions.

A reversal needs something to reverse.

Lakshmi draws two charts. From the first peak onward they are the same line, close for close — two highs near ₹120, a middle low at ₹108. She asks Rahul which one is a double top. He says both. She uncovers what came before.

The same two highs. One had a rise behind it and one did not.

Updated

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of the pattern's shape is changed by the weeks before it — and the name changes anyway
Part 07 · How to Think About Patterns
  1. 07.01.01 A pattern is a compressed record of supply and demand
  2. 07.01.02 Prior trend requirement
  3. 07.01.03 Pattern quality: symmetry, duration, volume signature
  4. 07.01.04 The honest statistics on pattern reliability
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The requirement, stated plainly

A reversal pattern requires a prior move in the opposite direction. A double top after a rise is a possible reversal. The identical drawing with no rise behind it is the upper edge of a range, and it is describing a market that has been doing this for months.

This is 04.05.01's rule arriving at chart scale, and the wording carries over unchanged: a shape is a question, and location is the answer. What has changed is only the unit. There, location meant the sessions around a candle. Here it means the weeks before a shape.

See it

The same two highs, without the climb

From the first peak onward this is 07.02.01's path exactly. Before it, price was going nowhere.

Put this beside the chart on the previous page. The right-hand halves are the same line. The names are not the same name.

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Why the name changes when the shape does not

On the rising path, ₹120 is a price the market had never dealt with before. Reaching it twice and failing twice is a new event.

On the flat path, ₹120 is a price the market has visited four times already. Reaching it twice more is what this market does. Nothing has been refused that was not refused last month, and a chart reader who calls it a top is claiming that the fifth and sixth visits mean something the first four did not.

The middle low tells the same story twice over. On the rising path, ₹108 is the lowest price since the climb began, so a close beneath it would be new information. On the flat path, price has been under ₹108 repeatedly. A boundary that has already been broken several times is not a boundary.

Without a prior move, a reversal pattern is a range with two of its visits drawn in bold.

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And now the hard part: how much rise counts?

Every book states the requirement and almost none of them quantifies it. A prior uptrend, a meaningful advance, a preceding move — none is a measurement, and 04.05.04's argument applies in full. A condition nobody has put a number to cannot be checked, and a condition that cannot be checked cannot be failed.

Three honest questions follow from it, and this page answers none of them because nobody has:

Over what window? The rise from ₹92 to ₹120 is 30% over several weeks. Measured over a year it might be a recovery inside a larger decline. Measured over five days there is no rise at all.

How large? 30% obviously qualifies. Does 8%? Does 3%? There is no published line, and the one you adopt will decide how many patterns you find — which 07.01.04 measures.

Straight, or merely net? The path from ₹92 climbs unevenly. A path that fell 15% in the middle and still finished higher has a net rise. Whether that satisfies a prior uptrend is a judgement, and it is yours.

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Where hindsight gets in

This is the part worth guarding, because the requirement is normally applied after the shape has been noticed.

You see two highs. You then look left for a rise, and you choose how far left to look. If six weeks shows one, you stop there. If it does not, it is natural to try three months. The window is being selected to make the pattern qualify, and nothing about that feels dishonest while it is happening.

The discipline is the one 07.02.01 already used for the boundary: fix the rule before you look. Decide the lookback window and the size that counts as a prior move, write both down, and then apply them. A requirement chosen after the fact has not been applied to the pattern — it has been fitted around it.

03.03.05 is the same error under its proper name. Using information from after a decision to justify the decision is look-ahead, and it improves results rather than breaking them, which is why it survives.

What Granthara does and does not fix hereThe requirement is real and this page states it. The threshold is not supplied, because Granthara has no measured basis for one and 04.05.04 set the standard for what supplying one would take. What you can do is state yours in advance, apply it consistently, and notice how much your pattern count moves when you change it.
Remember

A reversal pattern needs a prior move in the opposite direction; the identical drawing with nothing behind it is a range boundary. On a flat market the two highs are visits five and six, and the middle low has already been broken repeatedly, so neither carries information. The requirement is almost never quantified — window, size and straightness are all left to the reader — which is why it must be fixed before you look for it rather than after you have found the shape.

Everything this chapter has told you, in order

  1. 07.01.01A pattern is not a summary of the sessions inside it; it is what survives deleting most of them.
  2. 07.01.02Without a prior move, a reversal pattern is a range with two of its visits drawn in bold.
Next
07.01.03 — Pattern quality: symmetry, duration, volume signature

Next: what books mean when they call one pattern better than another.